Whatcom County Council Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee

# The Science of Justice Capacity — Projecting Whatcom County's Jail Needs to 2050 The numbers tell a story of rapid growth. County population expected to more than triple over the next quarter-century. Jail admissions fluctuating but trending upward. A community grappling with the fundamental tension between building adequate public safety infrastructure and avoiding the "if you build it, they will come" trap that has plagued correctional facilities nationwide. On this Tuesday morning in Council Chambers, Whatcom County's Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee gathered to hear from Eric Ratts, a national expert who has conducted more than 100 jail capacity studies across the country. His presentation would attempt to answer the million-dollar questions facing the county: How many beds should the new Public Health, Safety and Justice facility contain? How do you build for future need without overbuilding? And can smart policies today reduce the population requiring incarceration tomorrow? ## Meeting Overview The Criminal Justice and Public Safety Committee meeting on July 22, 2025, was called to order at 11 a.m. by Committee Chair Barry Buchanan. Present were committee members Tyler Byrd and Jon Scanlon, with additional council members Todd Donovan, Ben Elenbaas, Kaylee Galloway, and Mark Stremler also attending the hybrid session. The single agenda item was a presentation by Eric Ratts of DLZ Architecture and Engineering on updated independent jail capacity analysis for Whatcom County's planned new facility. Deputy Executive Kayla Schott-Bresler introduced the presentation, emphasizing the community's longstanding discussions about jail capacity and the challenge of balancing adequate public safety infrastructure with concerns about overbuilding and over-incarceration. ## The Statistical Foundation — Understanding the Data Behind Prison Projections Eric Ratts opened by establishing his credentials: a vice president with DLZ who has been conducting these studies since 2000, with more than 105 capacity studies and work on over 150 jail projects during that time. His approach centers on what he calls "time series models" — statistical analysis that attempts to predict future jail population needs based on comprehensive historical data. "What we're trying to do is we're trying to look at basically, a lot of data that shows all the different characteristics of the folks that are in your jail facility," Ratts explained. "And we're trying to unders…