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County Council Committee - Climate Action and Natural Resources

WHA-CNR-2025-07-22 July 22, 2025 Public Works Committee Whatcom County
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The Whatcom County Council's Climate Action and Natural Resources Committee received a comprehensive presentation on the three-year "Future Shorelines" climate vulnerability study, marking a pivotal moment in how the county approaches long-term planning amid rising sea levels and increased flooding risks. The $350,000 study, funded by the Washington Department of Ecology, represents the most detailed assessment to date of how climate change will reshape Whatcom County's coastline and river systems over the coming decades. The study found that the county's flood-prone areas will expand by 24%, growing from 82 square miles currently to 102 square miles by the 2080s. This expansion will put over 9,000 buildings, 90 critical facilities including wastewater treatment plants and fire stations, and 192 miles of roads at risk. Birch Bay, selected as the pilot community for adaptation planning, faces particularly severe challenges with up to 1,371 residential parcels potentially exposed to flooding or erosion by 2040, with an additional 860 parcels at risk by the 2080s. The presentation sparked substantive discussion about the intersection of this vulnerability data with ongoing comprehensive plan updates, particularly around proposed urban growth area expansions. Council members grappled with fundamental questions about the reliability of climate models, the costs of different adaptation strategies, and how to balance development pressures with climate resilience. The study's recommendations include creating climate overlay zones to restrict development in vulnerable areas and developing transfer of development rights programs to redirect growth to safer locations.

**AB2025-452:** PRESENTED - No formal vote taken on the Future Shorelines climate vulnerability study presentation. The committee received the presentation and engaged in extensive discussion about policy implications and next steps. **AB2025-517:** WITHDRAWN - The planned presentation from RE Sources about $10 million …

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**Climate Vulnerability Assessment Methodology:** The study employed cutting-edge modeling from the US Geological Survey's COSMOS system, incorporating five hazards: coastal flooding, coastal erosion, groundwater flooding, riverine flooding, and riverbank erosion. The assessment analyzed hundreds of thousands of data points across infrastructure categories including utilities, transportation, natural resources, and buildings. Two scenarios were modeled: near-term (2040s with 0.8 feet of sea level rise) and mid-term (2080s with 3.3 feet of sea level rise), each corresponding to approximately 1% annual probability events. **Model Reliability Debate:** Council Member Ellen Boss raised pointed questions about climate model accuracy, expressing skepticism based on historical climate modeling performance over the past 30 years. "I would make the assertion that there might be a higher, greater than a 1% chance that the data is incorrect, leading to a flawed outcome," Boss said. Rachel Johnson from Herrera Environmental responded by explaining that sea level rise projections are based on observed data from tide gauges showing 0.8 feet of rise over the past 100 years, with accelerat…
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**Chris Elder, Public Works:** Emphasized the collaborative nature of the project involving multiple county departments, cities, tribes, and state agencies. Expressed enthusiasm for potential future phases and additional funding opportunities through the Department of Ecology. Highlighted the cutting-edge nature of the work, noting Whatcom County was first in the state to receive USGS COSMOS coastal flooding data. **Rachel Johnson, Herrera Environmental Consultants:** Presented the technical findings and defended the scientific methodology. Addressed questions about model uncertainty by emphasizing that while timing of impacts remains uncertain, the impacts themselves are inevitable based on greenhouse gas emissions already in the system. "The uncertainty that we have is not a question of if the impacts are going to be felt. It is when they will be felt." **Council Member Donovan:** Focused on ensuring data consistency between climate vulnerability assessments and com…
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**Chris Elder, on project scope:** "This is the culmination of what has been roughly three years of planning, wrapping up phase two of our kind of sea level rise and future River and flood vulnerability efforts." **Rachel Johnson, on impact certainty:** "The uncertainty that we have is not a question of if the impacts are going to be felt. It is when they will be felt. They're changes that are already baked into our system based on the greenhouse gas emissions to date." **Council Member Dono…
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The Future Shorelines report will be finalized and made public next week, along with a community-accessible story map highlighting key findings. The study includes data tools for ongoing county and partner jurisdiction planning, including a Data Explorer with all geospatial information and an adaptation strategy library with approximately 60 strategies and implementation examples. Staff indicated they will engage with the Executive's Office and Planning and Development Services to determine nex…

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The committee now has the most comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment in Whatcom County history, providing specific data on infrastructure at risk and policy recommendations for reducing future exposure. The Birch Bay pilot adaptation plan serves as a template for other vulnerable communities. Integration of vulnerability data into comprehensive planning processes …
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# Whatcom County Faces Climate Reality: Planning for Rising Waters and Vanishing Shores The stark reality of climate change came into sharp focus Tuesday morning as Whatcom County Council's Climate Action and Natural Resources Committee received a sobering presentation on what three years of intensive climate vulnerability research reveals about the county's future. In a detailed briefing that lasted nearly an hour, consultants and county staff laid out projections that will fundamentally reshape how the county approaches development, infrastructure planning, and community safety in the decades ahead. ## Meeting Overview Committee Chair Kaylee Galloway called the July 22, 2025 meeting to order at 9:50 a.m., with Council Members Todd Donovan and Mark Stremler joining her for what would prove to be one of the most consequential climate presentations the county has received. The second agenda item—a presentation on forest conservation funding opportunities—had been withdrawn, leaving the room's full attention focused on the Future Shorelines Project findings. Chris Elder, senior planner with Whatcom County Public Works, opened by acknowledging the collaborative nature of the three-year effort. "This is the culmination of what has been roughly three years of planning, wrapping up phase two of our kind of sea level rise and future River and flood vulnerability efforts," Elder explained. "It's been an awesome experience for me personally, just working with staff from multiple county departments, Emergency Management, Department of Health, planning, Public Works and others." The $350,000 project, funded through two grants from the State Department of Ecology, brought together an impressive coalition including Whatcom County, Lummi Nation, five cities, the Port of Bellingham, and multiple state and federal agencies. The scope reflected the urgency of the challenge: with limited state guidance on climate adaptation, local jurisdictions find themselves on the cutting edge of planning for an uncertain future. ## The Science of Rising Waters Rachel Johnson, a water resources engineer specializing in climate adaptation with Herrera Environmental Consultants, took the committee through the technical foundations of the assessment. The study examined five primary hazards: coastal flooding from storm surge and sea le…
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### Meeting Overview The Whatcom County Council Climate Action and Natural Resources Committee met on July 22, 2025, to receive a comprehensive presentation on climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation strategies. The sole agenda item focused on the Future Shorelines Project, a three-year study examining sea level rise, coastal flooding, erosion, and riverine flooding impacts across Whatcom County, with Birch Bay serving as a pilot adaptation planning area. ### Key Terms and Concepts **Climate Overlay:** A proposed regulatory tool that would apply additional zoning rules to geographic areas exposed to climate hazards, potentially restricting new development in vulnerable zones. **Compound Flooding:** Water coming from both coastal and riverine sources simultaneously, particularly affecting areas like the lower Nooksack River where sea level rise meets increased river flows. **Vulnerability Assessment:** A systematic evaluation that considers asset exposure to hazards, sensitivity to impacts, and adaptive capacity to determine overall risk levels. **100-Year Flood:** A flood event with a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, though the probability accumulates over time (26% chance over a 30-year mortgage). **COSMOS Model:** A cutting-edge modeling system from the US Geological Survey that projects coastal storm impacts with different sea level rise scenarios. **Adaptation Pathways:** Strategic approaches categorized as relocate (moving assets from hazard areas), avoid (preventing development in risky areas), accommodate (living with flooding while reducing sensitivity), or protect (using structures like berms). **Bluff Recession:** Coastal erosion that causes land loss, projected to increase from current rates of 0.4-0.7 feet per year to potentially 0.9-1.4 feet annually by the 2080s. ### Key People at This Meeting | Name | Role / Affiliation | |---|---| | Kaylee Galloway | Committee Chair | | Chris Elder | Whatcom County Public Works, Senior Planner | | Rachel Johnson | Water Resources Engineer, Herrera Environmental Consultants | | Todd Donovan | Committee Member | | Mark Stremler | Committee Member | | Mark Personius | Planning and Development Services Director | ### Background Context This presentation represents the culmination of three years of collaborative planning involving multiple jurisdictions, tribes, state agencies, and federal partners. The project addresses a critical gap in stat…
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Environmental Land Use & Planning Housing Government Operations AB2025 452 AB2025 517 Department Ecology Emergency Management Herrera Environmental Planning Development Services Public Works Usgs Aly Pennucci Chris Elder Ellen Boss Jon Scanlon Kaylee Galloway Mark Personius Mark Stremler Rachel Johnson Todd Donovan Adaptation Strategies Birch Bay Climate Modeling Climate Overlay Climate Vulnerability Assessment Comprehensive Plan Flood Risk Future Shorelines Project Infrastructure Vulnerability Land Use Policy Nooksack River Sea Level Rise Urban Growth Areas